Smart football stats explained

Here at OddWizz.com our team of alchemists have concocted 3 stats to help you improve your betting performance: attack force, defense strength and shape/stamina. We're not going to explain the math behind these stats because it's boring and, more importantly, it's a secret.

Attack force

This number is calculated based on the numbers of goals scored by each team. The graphs display the attack for each team depending on the type of game ("host" or "guest"). This means that for teams that are hosts the "attack force" that is displayed on the match page is calculated based on the number of goals scored while being hosts. This way you can take into account situations where a team's performance varies significantly when playing at home versus when playing away.

The values for this parameter varies from around 10 (weakest attack) to 100 (strongest attack).

In order to make this stat (and the others) usefull you have to keep in mind that the attack of each team is relative to the  championship. So, if one of this week's match has the attack 100 and 80 for the 2 opposing teams and you find a match from 3 months ago where the teams have the attack 100 and 80 respectively, than those 2 matches are similar with respect to the attack force of the teams.

Long gone are the days where you looked at one match from the past and one from the present and you try to compare them so you could make a prediction. Now you can start comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges.

This is a reason why we don't offer stats for other competition (eg: Champions League): there is not enough data to compile the attack force. The same reason forces us to exclude some games from the stats; when a new season starts the team entering that league don't have a history inside that league to generate proper stats.

Defense strength

This parameters is calculated based on the numbers conceded by each team. Similarly to the attack force, it is calculated based on the type of game played (as a host or as a guest). This means that for teams that are hosts the "defense strength" that is displayed on the match page is calculated based on the number of goals conceded while being hosts. This way you can take into account situations where a team's performance varies significantly when playing at home versus when playing away.

The values for this parameter varies from around 10 (weakest defence) to 100 (strongest defence).

Again, keep in mind this stat is relative to the championship.

Shape/stamina

This parameter is a bit more complex and might seem esoteric, but we think it is very useful. As we explained in a previous article, the bookmakers' predictions are, ON AVERAGE, usually pretty accurate. Thus, the bookmaker's predictions are indicative of the expected performance of a team. However, the bookmakers predictions are not 100% accurate so the actual performance of a team is different from the expectation.

The shape of a team represents how the team performed vis-a-vis the expectations.

A team may under-perform or over-perform. A super-team like Barcelona might be under-performing if it looses 2 games in a row after 8 wins and a weak team might be over-performing if it wins 2 games in a row after 8 loses. If you think this parameter is useless we advise you to read on the regression to the mean, a concept from statistics was the inspiration for this parameter ;-) Because some teams perform differently based on whether they play at home or away this parameter is also computed based on the game type played (as "host" or as "guest"). So, the shape of the home team is based on it's performance as a host.

The values for this parameter varies from around 20 (least in shape team) to 100 (most in shape team).

Curios on how you can use the stats? Here's one way of doing it in the video below.


Extra smart stats for machine learning

In order for someone to visually make sense of the data we are displaying only 3 parameters. However, if you are interested in playing around with our data you can subscribe to the "Legend" package which will give you the option to download CSV files with these parameters broken down into details.

Regarding the attack force stat, for each team you will have access to the following parameters: "home games attack", "away games attack", "home games attack on 1st half", "home games attack on 2nd half", "away games attack on 1st half", "away games attack on 2nd half". Plug in this data into various machine learning algorithm and you might find a fortune :-). We believe that even if you're not into AI but are proficient with Excel the files will give you more options to create your own profitable betting strategy.