How to use smart stats for betting

After posting the the article on using the Kelly Criterion for football betting, we received requests on how to use the smart football stats in order to generate value bets. We happily obliged and made a video showing one method of using the smart stats from

Disclaimer 1: The method presented in the video is on of may other possibilities of using the football statistics.

Disclaimer 2: The method presented in the video does not guarantee profitable bets as it wasn't thoroughly back-tested against multiple matches.

To summarize the content of the video, here are the steps required to find value bets for football:

  1. Select some football stats you want to use as a base for your own predictions
  2. For each of the stats, select similar football matches and see how each teams performed under those conditions
  3. Determine the likely outcome (probabilities) of the match based on past performance under similar conditions
  4. Combine the probabilities in a way that makes sense to you (in the video the probabilities were averaged)
  5. Determine the value of betting on each outcome
  6. After each game, verify the strategy employed in steps 1 through 5 and adjust it accordingly

Happy football betting!


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